Thursday, 9 April 2009

Jon Rogers: Political Mathematics for Beginners

Lesson One; What makes a seat a two party marginal?

Example (taken from The Bristol Blogger)

"KingsWeston is a close, Lib Dem Labour marginal. 38 votes last time in May 2006…

John Thomas Bees - Labour - 1078 votes - 36%
Joanna Prescott - Lib Dem - 1040 - 35%
Anthony Smith Conservative 614 20.71"

POSSIBLE CLUE: Note that the gap between first and third = 464 votes and this would appear to put the seat out of reach of the third party. Thus "Lib Dem Labour marginal".

Now try it yourself - is the following a two party marginal?

Ashley Ward last time out in May 2007;

Shirley Marshall Liberal Democrat 1237 37.36
Daniella Elsa Radice Green Party 1127 34.04
Ricky Orlando Nelson The Labour Party Candidate 765 23.10

POSSIBLE CLUE: Gap between first and third = 472 votes

Answers on a postcard to;
Jon Rogers
councillor for Ashley ward
c/o Bristol City Council
College Green
Closing date for entries is June 4th - any entries received after that date may be marked "Return to sender - not known at this address"

1 comment:

  1. You're getting good at this blogging lark Tony. That was well thought out, succinct and witty. All you need to do now is drop the Latin title and work in a few pictures and you'll have a popular blog.

    How about 'Green Shoots' for a new name? Or 'Greens Shoot' for a bit of wordplay? And Bristol has to be worked in I suppose.