However, I should start with the responses from Councillor Cook to the questions I put forward regarding Bristol's World Cup Bid 2018. Unfortunately thanks to the lamentable state of our public transport system (not just in Bristol but also beyond), I managed to arrive at the Cabinet meeting just in time to hear the leader of the Council ask if I had any supplementary questions!
As I hadn't even read Cllr Cook's answers I decided that discretion was the better part of valour and declined to ask any supplementaries - I am sure that I detected a certain note of disappointment on Cllr Cook's face upon hearing that, however upon reading Cllrs Cook lengthy responses, I am glad I did so as they deserve a more detailed response than a neccesarily hurried and hasty reading is capable of providing.
Here are the questions and the answers received - I will give my response to them in a later post(s).
Questions to Cabinet – 28 January 2010-01-29
Answers to questions (from Tony Dyer to Cllr Simon Cook)
Economic Impact of World Cup on Bristol
Bristol City Council has now submitted its bid to be a Host City for the 2018 World Cup - by doing so, the council has signed a binding legal agreement which has severe restrictions in terms of its ability to withdraw from the bid process without, potentially, facing financial penalty or loss of prestige.
The decision to proceed has been justified on the basis of potential economic benefit to the City, it's businesses, and its residents, but at present the only estimates regarding the possible economic benefits resulting from this decision appear to be a generic model produced by PriceWaterhouseCoopers in which they say that, largely based on data collected from the 2006 World Cup, a successful bid would generate £150m in economic impact for a Host City.
Question 1: Has any analysis been done on the potential economic benefits of becoming a host city based on Bristol's specific proposal and circumstances?
Answer 1: I am advised that some work has been undertaken to assess the possible value to the Bristol economy of staging World Cup matches. It is important however to state at the outset that estimating the value of events and festivals is a somewhat complex and inexact process and is based upon a number of suppositions as much as established research. Work undertaken by Deloitte, Cardiff Marketing and Cardiff City Council identified that the FA Cup Final in Cardiff in 2001generated £4.2 million of spending, based almost solely on day trippers. The PR value of that one match which was watched by 600 million people around the world was estimated at £100 million.
Each World Cup match hosted in Bristol will be certainly be worth many £millions to the economy of the city and the sub-region. It is impossible to put an exact figure on it simply because so many factors are involved:- who is playing, the amount of TV exposure we can secure, our capacity to host the thousands of fans who will want to watch the match in the stadium (42,000) or in the Fan Fests (104,000), etc. It is clear that money will be spent in hotels, camp sites, in restaurants, supermarkets, shops and on travel. This will in turn generate employment within the city and stimulate spending by local people.
In 2008/9 Bristol’s hotels estimated to take in the region of £0.75 million on room charges each night with the same guests spending a further £0.75 million on food and drink, transport and shopping. This equates to a spend profile of £375 per room per night with occupancy at an average of 76% over the June/July period. In World Cup year and assuming 100% occupancy but no increase in spend, £51.2 million could be generated over the 26 days of the tournament.
In addition, a further £74.4 million could be generated through those attending Fan Fests assuming variable occupancy rates (50% capacity for home matches, 30% capacity for final/semi-final and 25% capacity for other matches) and an average spend of £100 per day at current rates. This equates to a direct economic return of £125 million over the 31 days of the tournament.
Deloitte has produced an economic impact study of the Rugby World Cup which shows that the tournament, which is one third of the size of the FIFA Football World Cup, generates between £200 million and £800 million in additional expenditure in a host country with indirect spending pushing this to over £2 billion if the event is staged in an European host country.
Question 2: Has any reverse checking been done on the robustness of the PwC model, by, for example, feeding in the actual number of attendees at the stadium and fan parks for Hannover (a similar city to Bristol in many ways) in 2006 and comparing the results with those predicted by the PwC model?
Answer 2: No detailed comparison has been undertaken as you describe as I understand that the data is not available from Hannover for the economic effect of staging the event. In fact officers have advised that no individual city studies were undertaken as far as they have been able to ascertain. The only study that we have available is an analysis undertaken by the German National Tourist Board which was referenced in the original report to Cabinet.
Question 3: The PwC model is largely based on the economic impact of non-domestic visitors and assumes that the percentage of Fan Park attendees from overseas will be 40%. Has the executive member been given any indication by those involved in running Bristol's bid that the level of overseas visitors is likely to be lower than that figure?
Answer 3: I am advised that FIFA ticket sales for attendance at World Cup matches are controlled and that the host nation can expect to get between 33% and 40% of those available. In Germany (2006) 3.2 million tickets were issued world wide of which 1.2 million were made available in Germany. From this we can deduce that approximately 60% of match ticket holders were non German nationals. The availability of match tickets also directly impacts on the attractiveness of the FanFests as an alternative destination. In 2006 in addition to the 3.2 million who watched matches in stadia in the 12 host cities, a further 21 million (approximately) visited the official FanFests in those cities. It is highly likely that FanFests would have attracted large number of domestic visitors which would impact on the percentage of foreign visitors overall but it not possible to provide an accurate breakdown of those numbers as, to our knowledge, no analysis was undertaken. The German Tourist Board however report 2.5 million more overnight stays by visitors from abroad in the first half of 2006 compared to the same period in 2005.
Question 4: Has any estimate been made of what percentage of ALL stadium and fan park attendees will:
a) be visitors from outside the City of Bristol, both domestic and international?
Answer 4 a): Ticket sales for the World Cup normally operate on a lottery basis and fans elect to bid for tickets for whichever matches they wish to attend. Most domestic fans and all visiting fans are likely to consider travelling to a number of different venues when deciding their options. The likelihood of securing the tickets you want is governed by the demand for particular matches and the overall demand for the tournament.
In Germany demand was extremely high and many fans were disappointed in not securing all the tickets they sought. By contrast reports from South Africa in 2010 suggest that the anticipated demand from across the African continent has not been realised and as a result more ticket are being offered to countries with high demand, eg England and the USA.
An analysis of the percentage change in overnight stays in host city hotels in Germany in June 2006 by foreign visitors identified a range of returns. The cities showing the least change, eg Munich and Berlin are recognisably international cities of note, yet still showed an increase in foreign visitor numbers of 17.4% and 31.2% respectively for the period. At the other end of the spectrum, cities like Dortmund and Gelsenkirchen showed increases of 285.6% and 262.7% respectively for the same period. Bristol’s twin city Hannover saw a 56.6% increase in foreign visitors over the month of the tournament.
b) and how many of the above will stay in the City of Bristol itself, as opposed to surrounding areas or elsewhere in the UK?
Answer 4 b): It is very difficult to predict the likely numbers who will opt to stay in Bristol during the World Cup in 2018. This will be governed by a number of factors:
i The number of matches and the attractiveness of the fixtures that Bristol secures during the tournament
ii The capacity and quality of the entertainment and cultural offer at the FanFest sites and within the city as a whole.
iii The range, availability and cost of the accommodation offer in Bristol and the surrounding area.
iv The ease of travel to and from Bristol and its connectivity with other host cities by public transport.
Question 5: What is the currently capacity for overnight visitors staying within the city of Bristol?
Answer 5: Destination Bristol advise that there are currently 4,826 graded hotel rooms within the Bristol conurbation plus 9,611 university halls of residence, and 2,471 self catering apartments. In addition, Bristol’s bid assumes that we will provide quality camping facilities for 20,000 in the city.
In addition to Bristol’s offer there are approximately 4,000 additional hotel rooms within a 20 mile radius of the City Centre plus a further 4,689 units of student accommodation associated with Bath and Bath Spa Universities.
Question 6: What has been the average occupancy levels for the above for each of the months of June, July and August for the last five years?
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